Review of the previous month's local market performance & outlook for the coming months.
Market statistics are supplied by the Woodstock-Ingersoll and District Real Estate Board. For full statistics, visit the Board’s website.
Average Residential Sale Price
The average price of homes sold in October 2017 was $334,135, a rise of 6.5% from October 2016.
Avg. Price Year-to-Date
The year-to-date average price was $339,198, up 19% compared to this time in 2016.
Units Sold in Month
133 residential units were sold in October, down 7.6% from a year earlier.
Units Sold Year-to-Date
Year-to-date home sales numbered 1,544 units, up 11.3% from this time last year. This continues to be heading to a record in unit sales.
Active supply remains low. There were just 236 active residential listings on the Board’s MLS® System at the end of October 2017, down 10.9% from levels at the end of October 2016.
Months of Inventory
There was 1.8 months of inventory at the end of October 2017, equalling the same stats at the end of October 2016. This is a record low for any October. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.
My Market Outlook
October was a bounce-back month in terms of residential sales compared to the previous 2 months. On the other hand, new listings coming to market have plummeted since May and haven’t shown many signs of coming back. The graph above also shows the levels or active inventory. Inventory does remain high compared to other months of the year although October sales took a chunk of that away. If sales in November match that of October, then the active listings drought is surely to continue through the winter months.
Back to the Beginning:
Let’s go back in time and look at October 2015 to see how October 2017 measures up:
Unit Sales = 114
Avg. Sale Price = $262,303
New Listings = 126
Active Listings = 362
Months of Inventory = 3.2
Unit Sales = 133
Avg. Sale Price = $334,135
New Listings = 121
Active Listings = 236
Months of Inventory = 1.8
The reason I chose to go back exactly 2 years for this comparison is that is when the Seller’s market was just beginning to take hold locally and culminating in Spring 2017. One of the big stats that stands out is the average home price. The difference is a $71,832 or 27%+ increase in value over 2 years. Who wouldn’t take that sort of value increase?
Now unit sales and new listings are very similar, however there is a huge difference in the active supply or inventory which was 362 in 2015 compared to just 236 in October 2017 (which is one of the highest inventory levels all year). That inventory level reveals the vast discrepancy, a whopping 126 unit decrease in homes available for sale. It shows just how far we are behind in listings and how hard the market was hit with the number of sales over the past 2 years.
Although active listings are high for this year, it is far behind levels that we were accustomed to and if new listings do not pick up any time soon, we could see even less available inventory. It could very well be slim pickin’s over the winter months.
There is still good news for both Buyers and Sellers alike. Even though inventory levels remain relatively low, Buyers have gained some additional bargaining power as the overall demand dropped off in the Summer. Competing offers are few and far between these days which is great news for Buyers. It may take a little extra time to find that special property you want, but in the end it will be worth it.
Sellers should also stay positive knowing that their property values have increased by over 27% since October 2015 and that current values will likely not slide to pre-Seller’s market prices. Now we just need a whole lot more Sellers!
If you have any questions regarding our local real estate market, please feel free to contact me for a no-obligation conversation.