Market statistics are supplied by the Woodstock-Ingersoll and District Real Estate Board. For full statistics, visit the Board’s website.
Average Residential Sale Price
The average price of homes sold in February 2018 was $365,571 rising 6.7% from February 2018, and $8,700 over this January’s average sale price of $356,,871.
Avg. Price Year-to-Date
The average year-to-date average sale price rose 8% from this time last year to $362,999.
Units Sold in Month
73 residential units were sold in February, down 51.3% from the record February 2017 and below the average for this time of year.
Units Sold Year-to-Date
Residential sales totalled 149 units so far this year which is a decrease of 40.9% from the record setting period in 2017.
Active supply continues the trend downwards. There were just 173 active residential listings on the Board’s MLS® System at the end of February, down 17.6% from levels at the end of February 2017.
New listings numbered just 93 units in February, down 47.5% from a year earlier. This is the lowest level ever for the month and the first time new listings has dropped below the 100 unit mark in any February.
Months of Inventory
There were 2.4 months of inventory at the end of February, up from 1.4 months at the end of February, 2017, but still far below the long-run average for this time of year. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.
My Market Outlook
The Tale of Inventory:
Only 73 residential units sold in our Board area in February and inventory continued a decline into the deep crevice. Maybe a bit too dramatic? Time will tell if this is a 2018 trend or just another lull in the winter market.
I don’t read much into the increased “months of inventory” figure this month compared to this time last year. Months of inventory don’t always accurately describe what is happening in the market. Last year, months of inventory were so low due to record buyer demand and inventory unable to keep up with that demand. Inventory as low as it was, was moving quickly, outpacing the replenishment.
This month’s MOI is higher than last year’s figures even though inventory is actually lower now. It’s more likely buyer demand has faded a bit over February, either due to tighter mortgage qualification rules, buyers’ inability to afford the higher average price range or a number of other potential reasons. When listings stay on the market longer, even so slightly, it is bound to show an increase in inventory stats. With a dip in buyer demand and a stagnant number of new listings in February, the months of inventory shows a deceiving figure.
Inventory Dropping & Avg. Pricing Rising:
At this time in 2015, a full 8 months or so before the current seller’s market began to develop, there were over 400 active listings on the market, resulting in 4.7 months of inventory. I’m no mathematician, but that’s a huge drop to our current piddly 173 listings. In the span of 3 years, average home prices have grown by over $100,000 from $254,975 in February 2015 to $365,571 this month.
So yes, the market has vastly tightened up and even though we have glimpses of coming out of the inventory doldrums, the real estate gods seem to keep us humble by giving us a few weeks of low listing activity or a selling spree that decreases inventory even further. We are still feeling the winter chill and we will need a hot spring to overcome any inventory deficiencies.